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1. Business and the Economy
- Globalization and the concentration of wealth, in the hands of
a relatively small number of individuals, or corporations, feeds the reality and
perception of a class difference between have and the have-not persons and countries.
The gap between rich and poor, north and south, will continue to widen, resulting
in continuous acts of terrorism and other problems.
- The pace of business keeps accelerating: product life cycles are
shrinking, employment tenure is shortening and the general length of any business
activity is diminishing. Businesses are using lay-off much more quickly as they attempt
to adapt to world market changes. The pace in most corporations is punishing because
old habits and processes are incapable of accommodating the new speed.
- The economies of the world are intertwined and therefore an "upset"
in one area is more likely now to cause a chain reaction in a short space of time.
This may increase the fragility and volatility of the economic system.
- Growing demands for market responsiveness and pursuit of new opportunities
in an increasingly dynamic business environment will increase reliance on tactical
and strategic partnering between organizations. Corporations will continue to merge,
integrate, and form strategic alliances.
- By design, the full-time ranks of organizations will continue
to shrink. The core of tomorrow's corporations will be relatively small groups -
those professionals upon whom the organizations absolutely rely. If it's not critical
to the mission of the organization, it will tend to be outsourced, contracted, or
dumped. Consequently, professional service organizations will continue to grow in
order to meet the needs of these companies while independent consultants, work-from-home
professionals, casual labor will become even more prevalent.
- Unrelenting shareholder demands for profitability, at any cost;
increased pressure of institutional investors on markets. Economy and business downturn
lead executives to focus even more on bottom line and shareholder value.
2. Science and Technology
- Supported by high-speed and wireless communication technologies,
there is continuing growth in telecommuting, and reliance on virtual teams--groups
working in separate locations and even across organizations, requiring fast, reliable
coordination.
- Less reliance on tangible assets, and increasing knowledge capital.
A major challenge for "knowledge workers" will be sorting and sifting relevant
information from the unbelievable amounts of available data.
- We have outdistanced our social evolution with our technological
evolution, to the point where we are doing things that are causing untold harm on
the ecology and society. We have leveraged the power of business corporations to
the point where they can destroy the world in pursuit of self interests.
- Internet becomes more and more pervasive. Eyeball relationships
changing; continuing growth of information and communication technologies, allowing
us to work at far distances in an increasingly high-touch way. Increasing use of
technology as a substitute for face-to-face interaction.
- Growing importance of biotechnologies, not only for human health,
but for agriculture, materials (manufacturing) and environmental remediation.
3. Government and Politics
- Business and government will be increasingly in partnership and
collaboration navigating the global economy. Organizations may be replacing governments
as the primary global governance mechanism. Emergence of global business, economic
quasi-governmental oligopolies, expected to bring a whole new set of challenges and
opportunities.
- Whole-system thinking seems the only possible way for any country,
including our own, to intervene in either a business of political environment. We
have spent too long stuck in the linear style of thinking and planning.
4. Population and Demographics
- World population continues to increase, especially in developing
regions of the world. Some industrialized nations are predicting a leveling off -
and in some cases - declining population. There is an increasing disparity between
a smaller proportion of affluent, older, modernized populations, and a larger proportion
of deprived, younger, and more traditional populations.
- The population is becoming more and more diverse. The ability
to work with diverse groups and also to mediate conflict will become more important.
All forms of diversity will be integral to planning and implementing change.
- Global population will continue to grow at between 70-80,000,000
people a year. Increasing migrations from crowded to less crowded areas, i.e. into
North America from "poor" countries. Number of have-nots, now over 80%
of the population will increase to 85% globally.
5. Education and Training
- More attention to convenience and accessibility. More emphasis
on "just-in-time" learning, getting the training on-the-spot (usually on
line) when the need arises rather than "going to" training (at a different
time or place)--integration of work and learning.
- Technology will be central to most education and training. The
whole concept of transferring knowledge via the Internet or world wide web is changing
the nature of education (despite questions about the relative effectiveness of e-learning).
- More and different ways to get education: Traditional university
degrees; certificate programs; for-profit universities (e.g., Phoenix); on-line universities;
corporate universities.
6. Health and the Environment
- Change in the environment is occurring at an increasingly rapid
pace. The elements which will drive the "future" will change so much that
plans made today will no longer be applicable before they can even be implemented.
- Systems thinking is increasingly seen as the only possible way
to move ahead in the environment, or in addressing health issues, such as AIDS. Sustainability
may be supported by a balanced scorecard approach, with global indicators that also
roll down to regional, national, local and even household indicators. A whole systems
perspective provides feedback on the impact of lifestyle patterns and choices.
- Especially in the developing world, life-threatening diseases
will continue to decimate large sections of the adult population and create increasing
numbers of orphans, challenging the developed world to find ways to solve the resulting
problems of poverty, crime, illiteracy, and terrorism.
7. Culture and Belief Systems
- Culture and belief systems are clashing all over the globe as
well as in the US. These clashes will probably intensify and OD practitioners with
expertise in managing multi-cultural conflict will have more work than they can handle.
- Culture and Belief Systems work emerges as a key category for
OD practitioners.
- Most top leaders in corporate America are still men who have no
interest whatsoever in anything that smacks of "touchy-feely". They have
managed to grow their businesses very successfully and amass huge personal fortunes
without much regard for the human side of enterprise. The people who need us the
most are often those who are least likely to use us. That applies to OD as well as
coaching.
- Success in the growing international super-culture requires that
those working in such contexts be increasingly comfortable with cultural ambiguity.
Valuing of diversity is increasingly a reality in businesses, in education, and in
communities.
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