Sonoma State University Political Science Professor David McCuan offers the following commentary on the results of Super Tuesday's presidential primary race across the nation.
Media are welcome to use all or portions of the comments below or to contact Professor McCuan for expanded insight.
He can be reached at
Main Office: (707) 664-2179
Direct Line: (707) 664-3309
E-mail: david.mccuan@sonoma.edu
February 5 was E-Day for candidates seeking their party's nomination for president. Two candidates, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), were the candidates with the most to win or lose on Super Duper Tuesday. And the candidacies of these two are headed in different directions even before we find out the final, final numbers.
The message from Tsunami Tuesday is clear: We have entered into a new political ball game. Obama will continue on while Romney will remain barely breathing and hanging on for dear life. His role is now reduced to tilting at windmills in the GOP convention later this year in Minneapolis.
What are we to make of the results from Tsunami Tuesday? Is it too early or too late to over-exaggerate the deaths of certain candidates? Where is the race for president headed as we roll to November?
For Super Duper Tuesday - The Message Is...?
If we've learned anything during this primary season it is that the voters defy easy analysis. From misconstrued polls to the absence of reasonable scrutiny, voters have bucked being on the proverbial couch for analysis. But one thing has remained clear: the fight over the direction of the major political parties is also shifting.
How are these shifts affecting the nomination dynamics for both parties? In three key ways - let's call these, "The Gap," "The Wave," and "The Spread"
The Gap:
Enthusiasm level between the Democrats and Republicans is on different planets. The dollars between parties is stark as well. The two Democratic candidates (Sens. Clinton and Obama) have raised more than the four GOP candidates (Sen. McCain, Governors Romney and Huckabee, and kooky Rep. Paul).
The Wave:
Voter participation, as reflected by turnout, was huge. Obama benefitted from Edwards dropping out, McCain from both the Giuliani & Schwarzenegger endorsements. Moreover, vote totals of "early voters" (absentees, vote-by-mail folks) pushed back the timeframe for elections and increased overall costs and frustration with election night analysis and headlines. Once again, voters scooped the pundits.
The Spread
How does a candidate fare when he/she does better than expected by holding a race close? Just as in sports wagering, the spread matters. What happens in the battle for delegates and second place for the Democrats is as important as the popular vote totals. See the results in MA for McCain and in CA for Obama.
The importance of ballot measure questions (term limits reform in CA, property tax reform in FL) plays a critical support role for driving voters out to the polls. Especially angry, "mad-as-hell, we're-not-going-to-take-it-anymore," voters upset with politics as usual and distrustful of politicians seeking to maintain the status quo in our politics.
What Does All This Mean for November 2008?
So, why does all of this matter for November? There is a sea-change afoot in our politics. And that bodes ill for both parties later this year. How, then, will the Fall campaign develop? For both parties regardless of nominee, the theme that will arise will be that of "character." For the likely candidates in both major parties, this will become personal.
Once again, we'll enter a period where the fight will be bloody, negative, yet defining. Results from the national presidential campaign for 2008 will have effects that will change American politics for a generation. The stakes this election year will define the future direction of our politics.
----------Academic Profile for Dave McCuan, Ph.D.----------------
DR. DAVE MCCUAN, Associate Professor of Political Science, joined the faculty of Sonoma State University in Fall 2003. His expertise rests in the area of American politics and elections, specifically in the sub-field of state and local politics.
Professor McCuan offers extensive commentary and has had multiple media appearances providing analysis of election dynamics and results to international, national, regional, and local media outlets.
These outlets include: The New York Times, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, National Public Radio, The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Boston Globe, Los Angeles Times, Sacramento Bee, San Jose Mercury News, Oakland Tribune, Contra Costa Times, Pravda (The Truth, Republic of Slovakia), Al-Ahram Weekly (the largest English daily paper in the Arabic world), KPIX-TV, KQED-FM, KTLA-FM, KRCB-TV & radio/FM, and KPFA-FM among others.
