Sonoma State's David McCuan Predicts Obama to Win in November
February 24, 2012 11:00 AM
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
February 24, 2012
David McCuan called it early for Obama, but, no matter the winner,
the economy will still reign supreme
Political scientists teamed up with economists to evaluate the election landscape at Presidential Decisions: What Path to Prosperity, held last Thursday on the Sonoma State campus. In a lively display of analytical data, McCuan made the audience of students and community members understand just why politics can be addicting. Using the "Time-for-Change Model", which has correctly predicted the November General Election winner since 1988, he showed that despite a historically low approval rating of 43%, Obama's projected performance remains positive even with lack of GDP growth.
Economist Mike Visser pointed out the lack of employment, inequality, and the growing federal debt and deficit as central issues. While everyone agreed, "It's (still) the economy, stupid," Visser showed just how much so, pointing out that long term unemployment is higher than it has been in the past 20 years. With graphs, Visser showed that "Income inequality has gone up over time and that is increasingly due to concentration of capital gains and business income at the top end of the income distribution. Also, our redistributive policies that try to combat this have gotten less effective over time."
Chris Irvin added that we are not getting growth out of our monetary policies. As regards the election, "When it comes to fixing the economy the president is more of a PR person; his policies can only accomplish so much." He added, "When things are not going great, history shows us we just try a new leader."
With the economy an irrefutable reality whoever the winner, are demographics and other issues something that can potentially outweigh the economic piece of this election? Political scientist and specialist in gender, race and politics Catherine Nelson stated, "Gender and race will be a big factor in the way of republicans getting votes."
Both McCuan and Nelson agreed that the key demographic in this election is independent women between ages 45-55 because they are more involved than ever before and have opinions and viewpoints they hold strongly to. "Republicans are tone deaf to women's thoughts," Nelson explained. "They are not listening; it will be hard for them to get these key votes." It was noted that demographics seem to play a bigger role in the primary, but less of a role when it comes to the general election.
McCuan proposed, "The Republicans are putting forth their 'B team.' They are looking to win the midterm elections in 2014 and 2016, not this election in 2012," which sheds some light on a Republican primary race that some commentators have likened to reality TV as a range of stands on religious, ethnic, and gender issues have all had their turn in the spotlight.
Michael Troy from the Economic Prosperity Institute (EPI) sponsored a small reception before the event. Many of EPI's members who are leaders in business, education, health care, community organizations, and government in our community also turned out for the debate.
About Sonoma State University's School of Business and Economics:
Sonoma State University School of Business and Economics' mission is to create extraordinary learning experiences for our students and to advance best business practices in the North Bay and beyond. Its Wine Business Institute is recognized around the world for its expert faculty, business-focused research, and the first undergraduate and graduate degree programs in wine business in the United States. With undergraduate, graduate and executive programs serving over 1500 students each year and concentrations in Accounting, Finance, Management, Marketing, Wine Business, and Economics, the School offers the most in-demand degree on the Sonoma State campus. The School of Business and Economics is accredited by AACSB (the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business), making it one of 15% of all business schools in the world to meet these standards for excellence. For more information visit, www.sonoma.edu/sbe